Expert: Trump`s Route driven by geopolitical considerations rather  than  economic benefits

ArmInfo.The implementation of the Trump Route (TRIPP) and the opening of roads under the agreements reached in Washington D.C. on August 8 are not  linked to economic benefits, but to geopolitical ones, as stated by  Sergey Melkonyan, an orientalist and PHD in history, during a lecture  in Yerevan dedicated to recent events in the region.

The expert highlighted several obstacles to  implementing this route.  First and foremost, Melkonyan noted, is the modality, that is, the  lack of a clear vision for how the route will operate. Secondly,  there is the issue of distributing responsibilities, particularly,  concerning  customs and border control, and road safety.  Melkonyan  pointed out that this issue was at least partially addressed  in the  November 9 trilateral statement between Putin, Pashinyan, and Aliyev. 

"Another issue is the matter of road funding. It's important to  understand that although the US has allocated funds for the  implementation of this route, it's a small amount. The majority of  those funds will be used to develop communications and border  infrastructure in other areas not directly connected to the road. And  this is all in the context that implementing Trump's route requires  significant investment," Melkonyan clarified.

The expert cited Trump's term in office, meaning his administration's  stay in office until the next election, as another obstacle to the  route's implementation. "If the Trump administration leaves the White  House after the next election, especially if the Democrats take  control, the interest in implementing this route will likely vanish,"  the orientalist noted.

The orientalist then pointed to the possibility  of a new blockade,  explaining that if extraterritorial access were granted to the road,  all east-west communications would bypass Armenia. In this scenario,  he also raised concerns about how Trump's route would then be  integrated into Armenia's overall transportation system, given that  the country's only benefit from the road is limited to customs  duties, which Armenia would not be able to fully utilize.

Meanwhile, according to Melkonyan, Armenia and Azerbaijan already  have at least two railways.  "However, today only the issue of  Azerbaijan's connection with Nakhchivan is being raised. But even so,  there is no guarantee that, having secured its objective, Azerbaijan  will open the remaining roads through its territory," he believes.

Also, Melkonyan pointed out the performance of the  Azerbaijan-Turkey  railway, that is currently in operation. Particularly, he noted that  only 20-30% of the freight capacity of the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Kars  railway is being utilized. "Essentially, it turns out there's no  point in making such large investments and building a new road when  you're not even half-utilizing the existing one," Melkonyan  concluded.

Recall , the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and  Prosperity) project is a 42-kilometer road in southern Armenia. The  project involves transferring management of the road to a U.S.-based  management company for a period of 99 years. Experts believe this  initiative can significantly change the geopolitical situation in the  South Caucasus.