Opinion: Armenian, Azerbaijani leaderships are in hurry to sign final peace treaty

ArmInfo. Today, the leaderships of Azerbaijan and Armenia have a chance to speed up the signing of the final peace document. Both sides are in a hurry, although each has its own motivation. This is how Russian political scientist Sergei Markedonov commented on the upcoming meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan on May 10 in Almaty.

The expert stated that whenever the highest representatives of Baku and Yerevan prepare to meet with each other, a significant number of articles with optimistic forecasts and hopes for the early end of the long-term conflict have been published in the mass media and social networks.

According to him, the upcoming meeting in the southern capital of Kazakhstan was no exception. At the same time, Markedonov wondered how justified the inflated expectations for the new negotiating round of the two ministers are and what is its fundamental difference from all previous ones.

"The negotiations in Almaty are presented as a unique format for communication between two ministers without outside supervision, and also as a "jump" from existing formats under the auspices of Russia and the West. I note that on July 16, 2022, a meeting between Bayramov and Mirzoyan took place in the capital of Georgia. Those negotiations became the first direct communication between the foreign ministers of the Caucasian republics after the second Karabakh war. There was also an attempt to gain a foothold on the Georgian platform, which was not strictly tied to the Moscow-Sochi or Brussels-Washington format," the political scientist noted. In this vein, he recalled that Kazakhstan is not a new player in the matter of mediation on the Transcaucasian track (from the Zheleznovodsk Communique of 1991 to the OSCE 2010 Astana Summit).

Today, the leaderships of Azerbaijan and Armenia have a certain chance (even unique in many ways) to accelerate the signing of the final document on peace (not to be confused with the state of sustainable peace "on the ground"). Both sides are in a hurry, although each has its own motivation. Azerbaijan wants to finally close the conflict gestalt, to fix, at a minimum, "Karabakh is ours", and "Karabakh is ours+" at a maximum, agreeing on beneficial demarcation-delimitation, and if lucky, then opening transport communications. Naturally, for their own benefit, and not for the sake of abstract ideas!  Armenia, represented by Pashinyan and Co., is also in a hurry, because the cavalry guard's policy does not last long. Today the rating is not so bad, but for tomorrow it is not a fact at all. Unlike its neighboring country, Armenia has a competitive policy, and the "peace at the cost of permanent concessions" formula may not be acceptable to everyone. Nowadays, when there is frustration and social anemia in the society, the authorities can easily make concessions. But there is no guarantee that the situation will not change in a year or two. So they are in a hurry! In any case, there is an accumulation of potentials, and the cumulative effect in the form of signing an agreement of some kind of peace treaty is possible," the political scientist assures.

Markedonov believes that both the West and Russia are terribly tired of the conflict in the Caucasus and, for various reasons, they also want a resolution. He added that the superpowers are now focusing on Ukraine.

"And all parties want to finish this game, hoping that the player who won the prize in the European part of the former USSR will also receive an "extra" in other regions of post-Soviet Eurasia. This is neither bad nor good, this is the reality. Eurocentrism, if you like as it is!

"And all parties want to finish this game, hoping that the player who won the prize in the European part of the former USSR will also receive an "additive" in other regions of post-Soviet Eurasia. This is neither bad nor good, this is the reality. Eurocentrism, if you like as it is!  However, no matter how we perceive it, these background factors help Armenia and Azerbaijan to "hurry up" here and now.

Under the current conditions, Kazakhstan is trying to increase its geopolitical capitalization. The risk is minimal. Astana is neither against the West nor against Russia. After all, not only Moscow, bat also Washington and Brussels want peace (though preferably without the participation of a strategic opponent, but these are nuances). It does not bring conflict to its territory, but strengthens the reputation of a pragmatic business partner who inspires confidence.  The demand for a "third force" in the world today is great. And the Kazakh leadership is trying to make its proposal for it. In case of success, everything will be clear without comment, but in case of failure, an explanatory model is ready: without the will of the conflicting parties, the mediator does not achieve success," Markedonov concluded.  Today, the Foreign Ministry of Armenia announced that in accordance with previously reached agreements, negotiations between the heads of the foreign ministries of Armenia and Azerbaijan Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov will be held in Almaty on May 10, 2024.

The initiative to hold a meeting on the territory of Kazakhstan was previously made by President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Moreover, Kazakhstan will only provide a platform for the meeting and will not act as a mediator.