Political scientist: Armenian authorities have dramatically changed  their tactics ahead of country`s parliamentary elections

ArmInfo. The Armenian authorities have dramatically changed their tactics ahead of the parliamentary  elections scheduled for June 7, 2026, according to political scientist and member of the Alternative Projects group Vahe Hovhannisyan, responding to statements by Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan that only two opposition forces would be able to overcome the electoral threshold in the upcoming parliamentary  elections.

Hovhannisyan, in a Facebook post, stated that until recently, the  Armenian authorities had been repeating that they would not allow a  repeat of the Gyumri scenario (50+1 votes - ed.). According to him,  this was an obvious mistake, as it was these statements that  determined the formula for the upcoming electoral process.  "And the  more often government officials repeated this formula, the faster it  spread throughout society and became an idea that tacitly united the  opposition systems. They've taken note of this, and the emphasis of  their previous statements suggests they've dramatically changed their  tactics," the political scientist noted.

He recalled that "Gyumri-2" assumed that the opposition forces would  gain at least 50%+1% of the vote, with the ruling Civil Contract  party constituting a minority. However, as Hovhannisyan noted, the  new statements portray everything as if "the opposition is fighting  for only 20% of the vote, while their power will be maintained by 50%  or more." "In the near future, they will promote precisely this  tactic, convincing everyone that they have won, that no one is  fighting against them, and will launch false sociological campaigns  to achieve this. But this tactic will also soon change. It is  outdated and is quickly losing its relevance in the face of public  sentiment in the technological age," the expert is confident.

Hovhannisyan believes that previous statements by the Armenian  authorities also reveal another goal of their chosen tactic: to stir  up tension within the opposition. As the expert noted, this is being  accomplished through "shadowy" methods of influence. However, he  expressed conviction that this is a poorly calculated approach, as  the opposition today is represented by serious people who will not  allow this primitive "trick" to work.

"There is another important objective factor: major opposition forces  don't steal votes from each other. A process has developed where they  pool and consolidate their own votes, rather than luring the  established opposition electorate to their side. And finally, another  derivative of this tactic is attacks on opposition forces and their  figures," the expert noted.

Hovhannisyan, however, believes that regardless of its tone, changing  tactics, and efforts to inspire pro- government ranks, the country's  ruling force is acutely aware of the objective situation, which  prevents it from reproducing itself. In this regard, the political  scientist outlined what to expect from the authorities in the near  future under the current circumstances. First and foremost, according  to the expert, the authorities will attempt to form an alliance.  Moreover, as Hovhannisyan noted, the Civil Contract will act in  conjunction with law enforcement agencies, since, in the expert's  opinion, no popular political force will cooperate with the  authorities.

"The government will also increase pressure on opposition figures. It  will make little attempt to reach an agreement, understanding that  these are all agreements 'written on ice' and will not be observed.   Furthermore, it will try to mitigate the acute conflicts within  society it has provoked, which arose, for example, after Prime  Minister Nikol Pashinyan's anti-church campaign. It will continue to  distribute social bribes (health insurance, pension increases),  although experience shows that they do not yield political  dividends," the political scientist noted.

Moreover, the expert believes, it will attempt to find real solutions  to implement Armenia's "Moldovan scenario." However, he called this a  risky move, since, firstly, it will be difficult to predict the  tension this will cause on the streets, and secondly, it could simply  lead to a sharp, not equivalent, but shocking increase in the votes  of other opposition forces.

"In these circumstances, opposition systems must stop responding  solely to the narratives of the Armenian authorities. They must be  flexible in their short-term tactics and become dominant in the  public consciousness, presenting their approaches and proposals. They  must be prepared for significant changes in the situation to avoid  missing a win-win opportunity. Ultimately, the opposition must find  the strength to stop fruitless and destructive attacks on each other  and the pursuit of commercial interests," Hovhannisyan concluded.

On March 3, in a conversation with journalists, Armenian Parliament  Speaker Alen Simonyan stated that he believes Armenia's second  president, Robert Kocharyan, will not clear the threshold to win the  parliamentary elections. Simonyan stated that only two opposition  parties could clear this threshold in the elections: Samvel  Karapetyan's Strong Armenia Party and Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous  Armenia Party, which, he said, would compete for the top spot among  the opposition (40%). However, he asserted that the ruling Civil  Contract Party will undoubtedly win the elections, assuring that it  will receive more votes than in 2021.