Russia`s strategic defeat in Ukraine and weakened role in South  Caucasus likely - expert

ArmInfo. The major change in the South Caucasus geopolitics since Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a real prospect of Russia's strategic defeat, which will put an end to  Russia being a regional actor or seriously weaken it, Gela Vasadze,  an expert for the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center, said in an  interview with ArmInfo. 

"As the saying goes 'Nature abhors a vacuum', especially since the  role of the South Caucasus as a logistic center has been enhanced  since Russia was blockaded. I have doubts, however, that the Unites  States, European Union, Turkey and Iran will be able to completely  replace Russia in the South Caucasus. But each will certainly seek  its share of influence on the situation. So we are now at the stage  when a balance is being struck between the conflicting interests," he  said. 

Much depends both on the interest shown in the South Caucasus and on  the countries themselves - the ability of Georgia, Armenia and  Azerbaijan to agree with each other and refrain from using external  forces in their own interests. They should develop a common strategy  of making the region more attractive. 

The expert is aware it sounds somewhat utopian, but he is sure that  it is the common goal the three regional nations should seek. As  regards the prospects of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations  in the context of the agreements reached by the Armenian and Turkish  special envoys, Mr Vasadze said it is along and rather painful  process for both societies. 

"What inspires some optimism is a rational approach and interest of  both Armenia and Turkish leaders to pass the way to the end. And the  fact that the process got off the ground is good. And the previously  reached agreements need to be implemented as soon as possible, which  would enable the parties to move on," Mr Vasadze said. 

The Armenian and Turkish special envoys' meting this July was the  first meeting there the parties reached agreements. The documents  provide for opening the Armenian-Turkish border for residents of  third countries and direct cargo transportation between Armenia and  Turkey. 

The special envoys discussed other steps to achieve the ultimate goal  - rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. The sides reaffirmed  their commitment to continue the process without preconditions.