Forecast: Russia can achieve a tactical but not a strategic victory in the conflict with the West

ArmInfo. Russia can achieve a tactical but not a strategic victory in the conflict with the West. I don't think Moscow has the resources to turn a tactical victory into a strategic one. Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.  "As of today, Russia is trying to change the architecture of the European security structure. And by its actions it is trying to force the West to reckon with itself. Because if Russia does not show the West everything it is capable of, it will simply become invisible. And it is trying to create a new structure of European security, taking into account that that the structure created in the early 1990s, within which NATO provides security in Europe, does not satisfy it," he said.

The political scientist considers Moscow's actions in the Ukrainian direction precisely as a manifestation of a policy to remind the West about itself and its needs and requirements. In his opinion, in the light of the existence of major global contradictions between the US and China, the Russian Federation decided that now is the right moment for such games with the West with the support of China. In his opinion, against such a background, everything that actually happens has practically nothing to do with Ukrain, since Washington and Moscow are talking almost directly.

According to Iskandaryan, the basis for such a conversation is the increase in rates, which was initiated by Moscow at the end of last year. Which is expressed in diplomatic statements, troop movements, the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and mainly the information war that scares ordinary people so much. In his opinion, both sides are clearly aware of their own goals in this hybrid war, which will only develop. But, at the same time, it will not develop into large-scale hostilities.

According to the political scientist, there will be no war just because it is not included in the main goals of the opponents and simply none of them can digest such a war. At the same time, he stressed that in the conditions of the outrageous militarization of the south-east of Ukraine, hostilities could begin by chance, unforeseen, which, in the opinion of the political scientist, can result in much more negative consequences than in the case of prepared military operations. "But everything is not simple here either. Since no one will be able to fight for a long time in the southeast. Against this background, the West is increasingly increasing the degree and loudness of the information campaign to distort the real essence of what is happening. And Russia, in turn, is increasingly raising the stakes in the geopolitical game. At the same time, parties will not be able to increase both to infinity. And sooner or later, someone will inevitably stop the game. I don't think that the United States will just officially and loudly give up the idea of ever accepting Ukraine or any other post-Soviet countries into NATO, but to ensure that Russia reckon with it, I think it can try," Iskandaryan summed up.