Forecast: It will be more difficult to untie the border knot between  Armenia and Azerbaijan than the Karabakh one

ArmInfo. As a result of the next escalation of the situation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, we have to state that it was the situation on the border  that came to the fore, bypassing Karabakh. It will be more difficult  to untie the border knot between Armenia and Azerbaijan than even the  Karabakh one.

A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergey  Markedonov  Sergei Markedonov, the leading researcher at the  Euro-Atlantic Security Center of the MGIMO Institute for  International Studies, Moscow.

"Military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have long become an  inseparable part of regional geopolitics. However, the fighting on  November 16 requires special attention, as it is the largest clash of  the year since the announcement of a joint ceasefire between the  leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan on Karabakh. A separate  topic is the results of these battles - dozens of dead, missing and  captured servicemen from both sides, "he stressed.

Returning to the main topic of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over  the transformation of the interstate border, the analyst stated that  several knots are being tied in parallel around this topic, within  the framework of which Azerbaijan is trying to get through the  territory of Armenia a corridor for communication with Nakhichevan.  Armenia, in turn, is trying to resist this, fearing that concessions  may acquire the character of infinity and become a serious threat to  its very sovereignty.

Against such a background, Moscow's mediation efforts and its  equivalent distance from the parties to the conflict, according to  the analyst, cause some discontent in the Armenian mediaand expert  circles.  Especially against the background of Ankara's extremely  clear position in this conflict, which supports Baku in everything  and everywhere. In this light, Markedonov drew attention to the  completely different meanings and roles of Turkey and the Russian  Federation in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"Turkey is a consistent supporter of Azerbaijan, while Russia is a  moderator in the conflict, whose moderation is accepted by Baku,  Yerevan and the OSCE Minsk Group.  In this light, the positions of  Moscow and Ankara  should be compared, without going beyond the  framework of correctness, in my opinion only in the full  understanding of these fundamental differences between Turkey and  Russia.  Here, I think, it is appropriate to recall that it is the  Russian Federation that is still the main mediator in the process of  conflict management. And it was Russia that contributed to the  suspension of hostilities on November 16. And here it is important to  note that it is more and more difficult for Moscow to stop the  bloodshed from time to time. The territory of the Republic of Armenia  is not a disputed Karabakh. And it is necessary to understand that  the introduction of the CSTO mechanisms and the guarantees that  Russia gave Armenia under the 1997 Treaty, is fraught with risks,  including for the Karabakh direction of Moscow's peacekeeping  activities,"  Markedonov summed up.

After shelling the positions of the Armenian Armed Forces in the  eastern direction, Azerbaijan on November 14 launched another round  of escalation in the conflict with Armenia. On November 16, units of  the Azerbaijani Armed Forces attacked Armenian positions with  artillery, armored vehicles and small arms in the same direction,  infiltrating the territory of Armenia. As a result of local battles,  both sides have losses. The clashes ended at 6:30pm, according to the  agreement reached with the mediation of the Russian side.