Forecast: The probability of Mammadyarov`s resignation is quite high

ArmInfo.Only time will tell whether Ilham Aliyev will get rid of Elmar Mammadyarov or not. However, the probability of his removal from his post is quite high. MP of the Armenian parliament from the "My Step" bloc, expert on  Azerbaijan Tatevik Hayrapetyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo. 

"In this light, we need to take into account Mammadyarov's vast  diplomatic experience - he has been the head of the Foreign Ministry  since 2004. And his replacement can really affect the negotiation  process in a certain way. In any case, it is necessary to wait for  further developments. Recent arrests in the Azerbaijani Foreign  Ministry are noteworthy in view of the fact that a month ago  Mammadyarov himself appealed to the State Security Service with a  complaint about the spread of slander in his regard. It was about the  real estate he acquired in New York>, she said.

On July 3, the State Security Service of Azerbaijan conducted a  special operation in the country's Foreign Ministry, as a result of  which high-ranking officials of the ministry Farhad Mollazadeh, Salim  Alizadeh and Nurupasha Abdullayev were arrested for abuse of  authority, misappropriation and receiving bribes. It is noteworthy  that these officials are in Mammadyarov's inner circle.

According to the expert, in Azerbaijan there is serious  dissatisfaction with both the activities of the Minister of Foreign  Affairs and the head of the defense department Zakir Hasanov. And the  inauguration ceremony of Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan in  Shushi exacerbated this discontent. Hayrapetyan believes that  President Aliyev takes all this into account and uses for his benefit  for quite some time.

According to Hayrapetyan, Aliyev already has candidates on hand to  replace Mammadyarov. One of these candidates is the head of the  presidential administration, Hikmet Hajiyev. The latter has been  engaged in quite active foreign policy activities, having made  several visits to European capitals before the coronavirus pandemic.  Thus, Hajiyev is already trying to play diplomatic games, which,  according to her estimates, should be taken into account.

"In general, the campaign against Mammadyarov in a certain way is  really connected with the negotiations on Artsakh. And the joint  statement of the parties following the recent video conference  Mnatsakanyan- Mammadyarov clearly indicates that the points of the  negotiated agenda put forward by Armenia become an important part of  the international agenda. In any case, Aliyev is quite capable of  blaming Mammadyarov for dissatisfaction with the negotiations and  dismiss him. Especially considering that Mehriban Aliyeva is digging  deep enough under the head of the Foreign Ministry, "the  parliamentarian concluded.