Caspian Summit and its impact on Armenia

ArmInfo. The summit of the Caspian Five in Kazakhstan's Aktau, so "successfully" coinciding with the new development of the sanctions war against Iran, Russia, and  now Turkey, has once again actualized the task of involving all the  routes of the large North-South transit corridor, including the  soonest use of Iran's transit opportunities for Armenia.

As you know, the heads of five Caspian states signed a convention on  the legal status of the Caspian Sea, laying the foundation for  turning the basin into one of the most effective nodes of the energy  routes. Thus, Turkmenistan, with the adoption of the convention,  expects to diversify its gas exports to Europe. Ashgabat hopes, with  the adoption of this document, to solve the problem of the withdrawal  of Turkmen gas to foreign markets by building the Trans-Caspian gas  pipeline along the Caspian Sea and its connection to the  Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). This gas pipeline provides for  the supply of gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey to the Greek  border, where it will become the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP)  towards South Europe.

According to the most optimistic forecasts, Azerbaijani natural gas  will begin to flow through Europe via these pipelines in 2019-2020.  According to available information, a similar project is being  studied by Kazakhstan. The connection of two major gas players,  Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, to this project will further strengthen  the economic and transit capabilities of Baku, and, as a result, will  lead to an increase in its military budget with all the ensuing  consequences: the use of the port of Olya in the Astrakhan region of  Russia with the ports of the other four states can also lead to the  activation of multimodal transportation, thus creating new routes  linking Asia and Europe.

However, despite the fact that the five presidents agreed most of the  issues, Iranian President Hasan Roukhani noted that the issue of  delimitation remains a problem for Iran. Rouhani said that further  negotiations are needed to resolve the issue of the division of the  Caspian, although it remains unclear whether he spoke about 22  kilometers from the coastline,  which are considered the territorial  waters of the coastal state, or the conditional midline.

In the opinion of independent analysts, it is not by chance that the  solution of the Caspian Sea problem is precisely these days, when the  US is being pressed immediately in three directions, two of which are  extremely important for Armenia - Russia and Iran, which are making  efforts to mitigate the consequences American sanctions. Even the  panic in the Turkish currency market caused by US sanctions can also  have a negative impact on Armenia, for Ankara, despite the absence of  diplomatic relations, is one of the ten largest trading partners of  Yerevan. As for Iran, the United States in fact wants to cut it off  from currency and major commodity markets to stop the growth of the  political and military influence of the Islamic Republic on the  countries of the region. It is important here that restrictive  measures concern both the Iranian companies themselves and foreign  firms that conduct business with Tehran. Sanctions will affect both  Iran's energy sector and the operations of the Central Bank of this  state, and, as a result, may negatively affect the projects  implemented jointly with Armenia.

Armenia should actively use the available opportunities. Speech,  first of all, not only about the importance of the speedy  construction of its own route of the North-South motor transport  corridor, but also the implementation of the initiative of Tehran to  build a corridor between the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea.  As  early as November 23, 2016, Iran received the first cargo from Europe  via Armenia. He arrived on a pilot basis to Iran from Germany through  a new multimodal transit route connecting Iran and Europe through the  Black Sea. In the future, it is planned that this route will be  replaced by one that passes through the territory of Turkey. Nor  should we dismiss Iran's Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian's statement  about the beginning of negotiations on the supply of electricity to  the Russian Federation through Armenia and Azerbaijan. "We started  negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan on the possibility of  supplying the Russian Federation with electricity," he said.  According to him, for the Iranian energy sector it is important to  connect to the European power supply networks, and Tehran has several  ways to achieve this goal. "One option is to connect through our  northern neighbors," he said.

It remains only hopes that in Yerevan they will not postpone this  project to a "long box".