Crisis group: Armenia and Azerbaijan ready for confrontation over  Karabakh

ArmInfo.Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to go to confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh, experts of the International Crisis Group believe.

According to the report published on the organization's website, a  year after Nagorno-Karabakh's April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia  and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994  ceasefire. Political and security conditions that prompted the April  2016 escalation have become more acute and both sides claim a new  wave of escalation already has begun.  Since mid-January 2017, deadly  incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons  have occurred with varying degrees of intensity; May saw a  significant increase, including reports of self-guided rockets and  missiles used near densely populated areas along the Line of Contact  (LoC). The settlement process has stalled, making the use of force  tempting, at least for tactical purposes; today, both sides - backed  by mobilised constituencies - appear ready for confrontation. These  tensions could develop into larger- scale conflict, leading to  significant civilian casualties and possibly prompting the main  regional powers to intervene. Russia, France and the U.S. need to put  their differences aside and apply concerted high-level pressure on  the parties to unlock the current paralysis and mitigate risks of  renewed violence.

At the same time, analysts note that the Vienna and St. Petersburg  meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, organized after  the April escalation and claimed at least 200 lives, did not yield  the expected result. The ICG notes that the leaders refused to resume  negotiations, preferring visits to the front line and voicing  militaristic statements. At the same time, it is noted that the past  year has revealed the fragility of efforts to resolve the conflict,  which is now at an impasse. "The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan do  not trust each other, they do not want to take into account each  other's interests. Between them, as well as government officials and  military leaders, there is no effective channel for cooperation. As a  result, there is such a situation, at any time, everything can get  out of control at any time. This is also facilitated by the opinion  formed in the two societies that the Karabakh conflict should be  settled by any means, even by war, that a new war is inevitable," the  report says.

It is also stressed that the settlement of any conflict presupposes  mutual concessions, which the parties are not ready for, Baku began  to demand more aggressively the international community's occupation  of its territories by the Armenians, as well as the application of  sanctions by the West, tries to restrict the activities of  international actors in Nagorno-Karabakh, impedes visits to Artsakh  and the conduct of economic activity there, at the same time, trying  to put serious pressure on Armenia. In its turn, Armenia stated that  the answer would be adequate. "In the deteriorating security  environment, Armenia did not show interest in discussions to ease the  situation and began implementing the concept of "Nation-Army", which  is likely to militarize society even more. In turn, de facto Nagorno  Karabakh even declared its readiness, in case of an attack, to go  deep into the densely populated territory of Azerbaijan along the  contact line in order to obtain a new security belt and strengthen  its position in the forthcoming negotiations. As tensions increase,  international mediation is stalled. Russia remains the most  influential foreign player, however its participation in this issue  is ambiguous. In the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia has a leading role, but  at the same time it sells weapons to Azerbaijan and Armenia more than  other countries, and the latter are convinced that Moscow is more  interested in expanding its interests in the region than in settling  the conflict," the report says. According to the conclusion of the  Crisis Group, the main task of the mediators against the backdrop of  continuing confrontation should be the following: to ensure a  permanent link between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, to  force Yerevan and Baku to soften positions and discard rhetoric:  "They must force both countries to come to an agreement in connection  with the adoption of urgent measures to restore confidence and  security. It also includes an increase in the number of persons  monitoring from the OSCE, the initiation of investigative mechanisms  with the OSCE leadership and the establishment of permanent contact  between high-ranking officers on both sides on both sides. At the  same time, the sides should hold constant negotiations on unresolved  issues, including the return of areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh to  Azerbaijan, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, ensuring international  security and the return of internally displaced persons."

ICG (HQ in Brussels), is an independent, non commercial,  multinational organization, uniting about 80 employees on 5  continents. The organization analyses situation in the field and  implements effective human rights protection activities aimed at  preventing and holding deadly conflicts. On the basis of the  information and assessments made in the field, ICG makes analytical  reports, making practical recommendations addressed to key  international actors making political decisions.