Forecast: Ceasefire violations and sabotage attacks are the only tool  in Ilham Aliyev`s hands   

ArmInfo. The ceasefire violations and sabotage attacks are the only tool of influence on Artsakh, Armenia, OSCE Minsk Group and the international community  and that tool remains in Ilham Aliyev's hands, Stepan Safaryan,  Director of the Armenian Institute of International and Security  Affairs (AIISA), has told ArmInfo.      

"The latest trends in the Karabakh peace process and the stand of the  Co-Chairs and Russia, as proved by the statements of Russian Foreign  Minister Sergey Lavrov and ex-Secretary General of CSTO Nikolay  Bordyuzha, clearly offer a serious price to Baku, which the latter  will have to pay for destabilization of the situation in the region.  The same peace process actually points out the unacceptability of  maximalist demands of the Azeri leadership," he says.      

In this light, the analyst points out the considerable reduction of  the threat of Azerbaijan's full-scale military actions in the  Karabakh conflict zone. However, given that the fire at the Armenian  positions and the sabotage attacks against Armenia and Artsakh are  the only way to express Ilham Aliyev's discontent, their threat still  exists.   

The analyst stresses the need to conduct serious work to suppress  this possible scenario. He thinks that the OSCE Minsk Group should  force Baku to implement the introduction of investigative mechanisms  coordinated by the sides and the mediators.