Opposition member on EAEU report: Even half the projected GDP decline will be a serious problem for Armenia

ArmInfo. Even half of the projected decline in gross domestic product (GDP) in the event of Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which is contained in the report on the possible consequences of suspending the EAEU Treaty with respect to Armenia, will become a serious problem for the Republic of Armenia. This was stated by a member of the National Assembly from the opposition faction "Armenia" in a conversation with journalists in the Armenian parliament. Artur Khachatryan, when asked to assess this report.

When asked to assess Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan's statement that the report prepared by experts from EAEU member states was inflated by 50%, the MP noted that while he could neither confirm nor deny the completeness or accuracy of the calculations provided in the report, even if they were only half accurate, the future threatening the country could be "apocalyptic."

Commenting on claims that apricots could be exported not to Russia, but, for example, to Oman or Uzbekistan, the opposition leader urged a review of statistics. "And let's understand that behind these economic calculations lies a political message: what advantages will Armenia lose if it ceases to be a member of the EAEU? According to their calculations, our GDP will decline by approximately 17%. "Even if half of this figure turns out to be true, it will still be a serious problem for the country," Khachatryan is confident.

Speaking about the problems the country will face if its membership is frozen, the MP noted that they will definitely be significant for the Armenian economy. In this regard, he recalled that the report even indicates where these threats may originate. "For example, we are talking about restrictions on labor migration. If we look at the cash flows received from Russia through the banking system in the names of individuals, they amounted to approximately $3 billion in January-August of this year. Now imagine that such restrictions are introduced and this $3 billion does not arrive. One can imagine how the dollar-dram exchange rate will change in this case. To this must be added the possible increase in gas prices, which will be required to be paid in dollars. "Consider the impact this could have on prices in Armenia," the opposition figure noted.

Another problem, he said, is that Armenian consumer markets are primarily oriented toward the EAEU. "That is, we will have to adapt our products to the requirements of third markets."

We will need to convince Europeans to buy our apricots. And this doesn't happen in a couple of minutes. We must understand that we are not talking about a raw material, like copper. In this case, we need to create a desire in consumers to buy your product. When deciding the country's future, all risks must be taken into account. Armenia's main export and import markets today are the EAEU markets. We must also remember that the observed economic growth, which exceeded the country's potential, was precisely due to membership in the EAEU," Khachatryan emphasized.

He noted that today, exactly what the opposition warned about is happening. "Previously, Armenia, finding itself at a crossroads in a complex global geopolitical situation, could pursue a balanced policy and improve relations with both the United States and Russia, as well as Europe. Meanwhile, the authorities have forced the country into a situation where it is forced to choose. Instead of complementing the interests of these countries, Armenia has become the center of their conflict," the deputy concluded.

As a reminder, on October 20, a report on the possible consequences of suspending the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union for Armenia was published on the Russian government's website. The report was prepared by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The 72-page report details the benefits Armenia receives from membership in the EAEU and the risks the republic would face if its membership in this integration union were suspended.