Expert: Real peace unattainable until Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement is  signed and ratified

ArmInfo.It cannot be ruled out that after January 2029, Azerbaijan might resort to military blackmail against Armenia,  as stated by Beniamin Poghosyan,  a senior researcher at the APRI Armenia think tank, on August 11 during discussions dedicated to the anniversary of the signing of the Washington  agreements.

According to Poghosyan, a large American delegation recently visited  Armenia. When the special advisor was asked whether the agreements  reached in Washington on August 8, 2025, completely rule out military  actions and guarantee peace for the coming decades, he noted that  nothing can provide a 100% guarantee in today's rapidly changing  world.

 "Therefore, at least after January 2029, I do not think that we can  rule out, for example, the use of military blackmail by Azerbaijan.  And theoretically, the use of military force by Azerbaijan cannot be  ruled out either. As for Azerbaijan's policy, its current position is  to do everything to delay the signing of a peace agreement as much as  possible. I am not sure that the demand to change the Constitution is  a precondition, and not just a pretext for not signing a peace  agreement. I do not think that there are clear guarantees that even  if we have a new Constitution that does not refer to the Declaration  of Independence, Azerbaijan will sign a peace agreement the next day  and be satisfied with it, and will not come up with new demands. 

Therefore, Azerbaijan's goal is the following: firstly, to delay the  signing of a peace agreement, secondly, to use the absence of a peace  agreement to suspend the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish  relations, while Turkey is also constantly receiving signals from  Azerbaijan that the full normalization of Armenian- Turkish  relations, including The opening of the land border and the launch of  the railway can only occur after the signing of a document between  Armenia and Azerbaijan. We call this entire process a vicious  circle we've practically coined a new term. What do we mean by  "vicious circle"? On the one hand, Azerbaijan is doing everything it  can to avoid signing a peace agreement, while on the other, it's  doing everything it can to prevent the normalization of  Armenian-Turkish relations without one. In this situation, we cannot  talk about institutionalized peace until the peace agreement is  signed and ratified," Poghosyan stated.